While the first electric cars are expected to be released towards the end of this year, Tesla Motors has already tried putting batteries next to motors and created the most successful electric car… at least for now.
People tend to think electric cars will be more expensive and unaffordable than their petrol/diesel relatives. Furthermore, people usually expect high maintenance costs, because of the batteries.
A few years ago, indeed – batteries had been expensive – an estimated figure systematically used by those who are against EVs is $1000 per kWh for a Li-Ion battery. The information is old and obsolete, and this is confirmed by a recent report written by Deutsche Bank: “we continue to believe that the market underestimates the potential for growth in this segment” and “we’ve noted evidence of steeper than-expected battery price declines which will likely bolster the consumer value proposition and potentially lead to stronger demand than we originally envisioned.”
In 2009, the average price for a Li-Ion cell has been $650 / kWh, with rumors that automakers use the $450/kWh price for their internal en-gross usage. Or, at least, this is for contracts signed in the 2011/2012 timeframe.
A 25% drop in prices in the next five years is envisioned, and a 50% decline is expected over the next 10 years, accompanied by a raise in performance.
All these expectations and figures predict that electric cars won’t be so expensive after all, and should be affordable to the middle class in about 20 years – easily. And it’s not me the one who makes the predictions – it’s Deutsche Bank.
