The consultancy AlixPartners conducted a study of investments in electric and autonomous cars market and the cost-competitiveness of it. They conducted the research of the market and two consumer surveys.
According to it, hundreds of companies and manufacturers, even new and non-traditional ones, are investing billions of dollars into electric and autonomous vehicles decades before the technologies will become fully cost-competitive. Simultaneously, consumers are not sure whether they want it yet, because they are questioning the cost and safety of them. Additionally, the market is set to continue in a cyclical downturn.
The study shows that $255 billion in R&D and capital expenditures are expected to be spent by 2023. 207 electric car models will be released by then, however, most probably they will not be profitable for their manufacturers. The reasons for this are high systems costs, low volumes and intense competition.
$61 billion is expected to be invested in autonomous-driving technologies. The industry cost of one such system per car is around $22,900. However, consumers do not plan to pay more than $2,300 for these features.
The U.S. market is also losing the interest in the electric cars. This year, 16.8 million vehicles were sold, compared to 17.2 million in 2017. This cyclical downturn will continue and we can expect around 15.1 million unit sales in 2020. However, the situation on the world scale looks better. The market is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 2.4% by 2025, trailing expected worldwide GDP growth of 3.3%.
Additionally, the study predicts that by 2030 electric vehicles will reach about 20% of the U.S, 30% of European, and 35% of the Chinese markets. The number of the autonomous vehicles also will increase to 3 million U.S sales by then. Another type of “Eco” cars that will have an increase in sales, most probably the most significant, is a plug-in hybrid since 22.5% of Americans would consider buying a car with this technology as their next car.
Suppliers are also affected by the electrification. The positive side is that they will have great opportunity if they adapt successfully, if not then they risk losing 25% of their revenues. The risk comes from supplying the parts that are exclusive for cars with an internal-combustion engine such as exhausts and power-trains, representing 26% of suppliers’ revenue last year.
The rise of electric and autonomous cars will be the biggest change that has ever happened to the car industry, and in order to take advantage of the situation, the manufacturers will have to develop precise strategy and follow it precisely.