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Morgan Stanley Predicts Not-Too-Optimistic Future for EV Sales


We try to keep an optimistic tone while writing on this blog, although there are lots of (realistic) reasons we sometimes shouldn’t. We nevertheless know that the oil reservers are going to end some day, and all we’ll have around is the Sun, electricity and electric motors.

The reason why I’m saying this is that a new survey by Morgan Stanley, says electric cars won’t sell as well some 13 years from now as we’d thought. They based their statements on the concept that the EV industry isn’t evolving and that traditional internal combustion engines have gotten better in 2011 in what regards their fuel economy.

Moreover, the prediction counters what Nissan recently said, when they had been envisioning a 10 percent growth in electric vehicles sales by 2020. The study now says that the growth will only hit 4.5 percent, even less than had been recently forecast as 8.6 percent.

The same study says that, by 2025, only half the predicted number of electric cars will sell. This has been reasoned by the fact that the economical crisis will affect budgets in such a manner that they won’t be able to provide the subsidies necessary for the EV industry to prosper.

However, this only applies to pure electric vehicles. The hybrid category is part of another story, since hybrids can be seen as a means to reduce fuel consumption and are a little less expensive than pure EVs, which may still look odd to some. It looks like the world will need cheap electric conversions for when gas will hit $15 a gallon…

[via rushlane]

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